Fundamentals Make Currency Pairs Move
The key to making money in the Forex is understanding what makes currency
pairs move. Ultimately, it is investors who make currency pairs move as
they buy and sell different currencies, but these investors buy and sell
for a reason. Either they see something happening fundamentally in the global
economy that makes them believe a currency is going to get stronger or
they see something happening fundamentally that makes them believe a currency
is going to get weaker. In other words, they watch the fundamentals and make their decisions according to what they see.
Fundamentals make currency pairs move. If the economic fundamentals in the
United States are improving, the U.S. dollar (USD) will most likely be getting
stronger because Forex investors will be buying dollars. Conversely, if the economic
fundamentals in the United States are declining, the U.S. dollar (USD) will most
likely be getting weaker because Forex investors will be selling dollars.
You can learn to watch the fundamental economic indicators that move currency
pairs just like institutional investors do. In this section, we will explain
the following to help you build a strong fundamental foundation:
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Not All Economic Indicators are Important |
Globalisation has brought us all closer together and has brought millions
of pieces of information to our fingertips on a daily basis. A big part of
becoming a successful Forex investor entails learning how to ignore most of
the news and information that bombards you every day so you can focus on the important information.
Not all economic indicators are important. You will see many fundamental
economic announcements that you do not have to pay much attention to.
For instance, unemployment in Ireland is not as important as unemployment in the United States.
While Irish unemployment is certainly important in Ireland, the U.S. economy has a much larger
impact on the global economy so investors watch U.S. economic announcements more closely.
Remember, it is ultimately large, institutional investors who move the Forex market so
you want to watch the same things these investors are watching. Doing so enables you to
more accurately predict what moves they will make so you can take advantage of those movements.
Peeking Ahead
One great way to take advantage of fundamentally driven price movement is to watch
the news. You will learn how to profit from unexpected news when you complete the News Analysis section.
The most important fundamental economic indicators can be divided into the following three groups:
- Interest rates
- Economic strength
- Capital and trade flow
You will learn more about economic strength and capital and trade flow indicators
in later sections. In this section, you are going to learn about interest rates - the most important
fundamental economic indicator in the Forex market.
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Interest Rates - The Most Important Economic Indicator |
Interest rates rule the Forex market. Currencies representing economies with higher
interest rates tend to be stronger than currencies representing economies with lower
interest rates. Investors are always looking for the greatest return on possible on their
investments, and economies with higher interest rates usually have higher yields on their investments.
Imagine you are walking down the street looking for a place to put your money and you see
two banks, one on either side of the street. The bank on the right side of the street
is offering to pay 6 percent interest on any money you deposit there. The bank on the
left side of the street is only offering to pay 2 percent interest on any money you
deposit there. Naturally, you would choose the bank offering to pay 6 percent interest
because you want to make a better rate of return on your investment.
The same principle applies to economies and their respective currencies. If you can
get a 6 percent return on your investments in the United Kingdom, but you can only
get a 2 percent return on your investments in Switzerland, you are most likely going
to invest in the United Kingdom.
So how does this affect the value of the British pound (GBP)?
As more and more people put their money in investments in the United Kingdom,
demand for British pounds (GBP) increases. Basic economics tells us that as demand increases,
the value of the British pound (GBP) also increases.
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Learning Reinforcement Exercise |
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Basic economic principles - like supply and demand - permeate the forex market.
To ensure you establish a strong foundation in your trading, let's take a moment
and review how the forces of supply and demand interact to affect currency - pair prices.
Below is a typical supply and demand chart. Demand is represented by the line that
is sloping downward from left to right, and supply is represented by the line that
is sloping upward from right to left. The point at which these two lines cross represents
the price the market will accept for the currency.
Now watch what happens as supply and demand increase and decrease.
Increasing demand for a currency increases the value of that currency.
Increasing supply of a currency decreases the value of that currency.
Decreasing demand for a currency decreases the value of that currency.
Decreasing supply of a currency increases the value of that currency.
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Successful Forex investors always watch Central Banks (the organisations that set interest rates) closely to see if they are likely to raise interest rates, lower interest rates or leave interest rates unchanged in the future.
| The most important central banks are as follows: |
| United States | Federal Reserve (The Fed) |
| European Union | European Central Bank (ECB) |
| United Kingdom | Bank of England (BOE) |
| Japan  | Bank of Japan (BOJ) |
| Switzerland | Swiss National Bank (SNB) |
| Canada  | Bank of Canada (BOC) |
| Australia | Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) |
| New Zealand | Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) |
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Inflation Impacts Interest Rates |
Successful Forex investors always watch central banks to see what they are going to
do with interest rates. Successful Forex investors also watch the economic
numbers that central banks watch when making their interest - rate decisions so
they can more accurately determine what central banks might do.
One extremely important economic indicator central banks watch when making their interest - rate
decisions is inflation. Inflation is a general rise in prices for goods and services.
For example, you most certainly pay more for a litre of milk or a loaf of bread
than you did 10 or 20 years ago. You've probably also heard people from earlier
generations comment on how expensive everything is these days. We all deal with inflation.
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Example |
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Inflation ran rampant in Germany after World War
I. Brutal economic instability caused the
dramatic devaluation of the German mark.
You can get a sense of just how bad the situation was by
looking at the price of German postage stamps.
In April 1921, it cost approximately 0.60 German
marks to mail a letter from one city to another.
However, by December 1923 - merely 15 months
later - it cost approximately 100,000,000,000
marks to mail that same letter from one city to
another.
While this is certainly an extreme
example, it drives the point home that inflation
will always be a part of our lives.
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Moderate inflation is generally accepted as a natural by - product of economic growth.
Too much inflation, however, can hurt an economy.
Central banks are always on the lookout for rising inflation. When they see inflation rising
to uncomfortable levels, they do whatever they can to curb that growth. One tool central
banks use to curb inflation is interest rates - central banks can combat rising inflation by raising interest rates.
Higher interest rates make it more difficult for businesses and individuals to borrow money
to buy and build new items, which slows economic growth and, as a result, inflation.
You, as a Forex investor, want to watch inflation rates to get a glimpse into what
central banks may do with their interest rates. If inflation is rising, central banks
will most likely raise interest rates, which is good for the representative currency
of that economy. You should watch the following two economic inflation indicators to
get an idea of what central banks are looking at:
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): the economic indicator that measures how
much a basket of goods that consumers regularly buy costs. The more money consumers have
to spend on essential goods and services, the less money they have to spend on extra goods and services.
- Producer's Price Index (PPI): the economic indicator that measures
how much producers must pay for the raw materials they use to produce their finished goods.
If prices for producers are rising, they will most likely pass those costs onto consumers.
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