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The connections between the markets you know - and how to trade them
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Intermarket Analysis
The Futures market is the most diverse global financial market. Whilst no other financial
market can compare to the diversity of the Futures market, other financial markets do
impact on the Futures market. For instance the U.S. Bond market can affect the value
of the U.S. Dollar Index Futures contract just as the Japanese yen can affect the
value of the Nikkei 225 Index Futures contract.
To become a successful Futures trader you will need to recognise the relationships that
exist among the world's financial markets and comprehend how these relationships may
affect the Futures contracts you are trading.
Sometimes you can receive advanced warning of what is going to happen in the
Futures market by watching what is currently happening in other financial markets.
For example if you see the value of the AUD/USD currency pair rising quickly, you
can look for a corresponding rise in the value of the Gold Futures contract. Once
you know what to look for, you can take advantage of the same correlations that
the large institutional investors are watching.
In this section we will be focusing on how the following markets affect the Futures market:
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The Forex Market and the Futures Market |
The rise of global demand for commodities has tied the Futures market and
the Forex market closer together. Virtually every economy around the world
has to import some of the commodities it consumes. To buy these commodities
importers must exchange their currency for the currency of the economy from
which they are importing their goods. This transaction drives the demand
for the exporter's currency higher, with a corresponding increase in the
value of that currency. This transaction also drives the supply of the
importer's currency lower and therefore the value of that currency decreases.
Three of the major currencies - the Canadian dollar (CAD), the Australian dollar
(AUD) and the New Zealand dollar (NZD) - are closely related to commodity values
because they are major commodity exporters. As the price of commodities rises
the value of these currencies typically rises. As the price of commodities falls
the value of these currencies typically falls.
Each of these 'commodity currencies', as they are known amongst Forex traders,
is correlated with a different commodity. For example Gold Futures are highly
correlated with the Australian dollar. As the price of the Australian dollar
rises the value of Gold Futures typically also rises. As the price of the
Australian dollar dips the value of Gold Futures also dips. While this
correlation isn't perfect it is significant.
Futures traders can also buy and sell Futures contracts that directly represent
the currencies themselves. You can buy the Futures contract for the Canadian
dollar if you think this currency is going to increase in value. Or, instead,
you can sell the Futures contract for the Japanese yen if you think this
currency is going to decrease in value. Paying attention to what is happening
in the Forex market during the next few years could therefore lead you to
greater profits in your Futures trading.
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The Bond Market and the Futures Market |
The global Bond market is the second largest financial market in the world. Governments,
institutions and individual investors all participate actively in the global Bond market.
Each one of these market participants is looking for the same thing -
a profitable return on investment.
Government bonds make up the largest percentage of the global Bond market. These bonds
are typically viewed as risk-free investments because they are backed by the full goodwill
and faith of strong national governments. However not all government bonds were created
equal - or achieve equality! Some governments pay a higher interest rate for their bonds
than do others. International investors take these interest rates into account when they
are deciding where to invest their money. Typically bonds with higher interest rates are
more attractive to investors - as long as the economies covering the bonds are relatively stable.
Investors who wish to buy government bonds must buy these bonds with the currency of
the represented government. If international investors wish to buy U.S. government
bonds then they must first exchange their currencies for U.S. dollars. This increased
demand for U.S. dollars drives up the value of the U.S. Dollar Index Futures contract.
At the same time the increased supply of some international currencies on the market
drives down the value of the Futures contracts for those currencies.
Knowing which governments offer higher interest rates on their government bonds,
and likewise which bonds are gaining popularity among international investors, will
help you to identify which currency Futures contracts to buy and which currency
Futures contracts to sell. Fortunately for you the international bond market
rarely changes directions instantaneously. Instead it cycles in longer-term and
somewhat predictable trends that you can exploit.
You can also trade Futures contracts on the government bonds themselves. If you
see that demand for Japanese or Swiss bonds is increasing, for instance, you can
buy the Futures contract for either of these bonds.
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Stock Markets and the Futures Market |
Individual investors around the world seem to watch Stocks more closely than any
other market. Stocks are exciting, they have been around for a while and most
individual investors can relate to the companies in which they are buying stock.
When stocks are performing well, money from around the globe flows in to buy
the 'hot' stocks. When stocks are performing poorly, money flows out as international
investors sell their shares.
Futures investors can take advantage of the general increases and decreases in
stock markets around the world by investing in the Futures contract representing
the indices from the major global stock markets. For instance, to take advantage
of a rising stock market in France, a Futures investor can buy the Futures contract
for the CAC 40. Likewise, to take advantage of a falling market in the United Kingdom,
a Futures investor can sell the Futures contract for the FTSE 100.
Globalization has also made it easier for investors from one country to invest in the
stock markets of other countries. If investors see that stocks in the United Kingdom
are performing well, they will rush to buy those stocks. If they see that stocks in
Japan are starting to outperform stocks in Europe, they may take their money out of
the U.K. and put it into Japan in the hope of earning higher rates of return on
their investments.
Stocks are priced in the local currency. To invest in stocks in the United Kingdom
foreign investors must first convert their currencies into British pounds sterling.
This increased demand for British pounds sterling drives up the value of British
Pound Futures contracts. As this occurs the increased supply of international currencies
on the market, a supply that is disproportionate to demand, drives the value of the
Futures contracts for these currencies lower.
Futures investors closely watch how the stock markets in major countries are performing.
If the stock market in one country starts outperforming the stock market in another
country then Futures investors know that other investors will most likely be moving
their money from the country with the weaker stock market to the country with the
stronger stock market. This will drive up the value of the Futures contract representing
the currency of the country with the stronger stock market. And, meanwhile, the value
of the Futures contract representing the currency of the country with the weaker stock
market will be depressed. By buying the Futures contract for the currency from the
country with the stronger stock market, and by selling the Futures contract for the
currency from the country with the weaker stock market, you can potentially make a
handsome profit.
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