Technical Analysis: Trends, Support and Resistance
Stocks are rising. Stocks are falling. If you watch or read financial news
reports, you have seen or read people talking about stocks moving up and down.
Of course, it is not the stocks themselves that are moving up and down but
rather the prices of those stocks that are moving up and down. Stock prices
change daily. Your job as a stock or CFD trader is to learn to identify where
the price is going to go next.
Stock and CFD traders keep track of where stock prices have been in the past
using stock price charts. By keeping track of where stock prices have gone,
stock and CFD traders are able to more accurately project where stock prices are
going to go in the future. This process of analysing past stock prices to
determine future stock price movement is called technical analysis.
Technical analysis, or chart reading, is the next natural step you can take
after you have conducted your fundamental analysis. Fundamental analysis helps
you determine whether you should buy or sell a particular stock or CFD.
Technical analysis helps you determine when you should buy or sell that stock or
CFD.
Technical analysis is considered by most traders to be somewhat of an art
form that takes time and practice to master. You should start out today on the
path to becoming an accomplished technical analyst by learning the following
foundational concepts of technical analysis:
Trading with the Trend
Identifying the trend and trading with it is vital to your success as a stock
or CFD trader. The stock market can be an emotionally charged place and, when
traders start pushing the price of a stock in one direction or another, other
traders typically start to follow suit and push the price of the stock in the
same direction. When you see increasing momentum building behind a moving stock,
the chances are good that the stock will continue moving in that direction. At
that point you increase your odds of making money by trading with the trend.
Fighting the trend generally turns out to be a losing proposition.
Trends tell you where prices will most likely be going in the future. If
traders are pushing the stock price higher you ought to buy the stock or CFD to
make money. If traders are pushing the stock price lower, you ought to sell the
stock or CFD to make money. If traders in disagreement over where the stock
price should go and are pushing the stock price sideways, you ought either to
alternate between buying and selling the stock or CFD or wait until the trend is
clearly up or down to make money.
Trends do not move straight up or straight down. Different traders have
different outlooks on where they believe the stock price is going to move in the
future and they make their investments accordingly. These investments cause the
stock price to move up and down within the same trend.
When a majority of traders believes the stock price is going to move in one
direction they can overpower the minority of traders who disagree with them.
When this happens, the stock price begins to follow a trend and will usually
move in one direction for a while until the majority loses confidence in further
movement and the price movement subsequently loses momentum. As the majority
loses confidence the minority can momentarily exert its influence and push the
stock price in the opposite direction to retrace part of the previous movement.
However, once the majority catches its breath and decides to resume building
momentum, it will turn the stock price back around and continue in the previous
direction.
Every time a stock or CFD turns around and begins moving in the opposite
direction it forms a new high or a new low. New highs form when a stock or CFD
moves higher and then turns around and moves lower. New lows form when a stock
or CFD moves lower and then turns around and moves higher. Identifying these
highs and lows allows you to identify whether a stock or CFD is in an upward
trend, a downward trend or a sideways trend.
Upward trends - stocks or CFDs that are trending upward form
a series of higher highs and higher lows (see Figure 1).
Figure 1 - Upward Trend
Downward trends - stocks or CFDs that are trending downward
form a series of lower highs and lower lows (see Figure 2).
Figure 2 - Downward Trend
Sideways trends - stocks or CFDs that are trending sideways
form a series of highs that are at approximately the same price level and a
series of lows that are at approximately the same price level (see
Figure 3).
Figure 3 - Sideways Trend
Trends - whether they are upward trends, downward trends or sideways trends -
can form over various time periods. Identifying the following trends over each
time-frame and being able to align them in your analysis is crucial to your
success as a stock or CFD trader:
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Extra material |
Learning Reinforcement Exercise
If a stock moves up, then down, then up, then
down, then up and then down, it is on an:
- Upward trend
- Downward trend
- Sideways trend
- Any of the above - not enough information
Correct Answer: D
Remember, stock prices move up and down in upward
trends, downward trends and sideways trends. The key
is identifying where the stock is establishing its
highs and lows.
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Long-Term Trend |
Fundamental factors are the major drivers of a stock's long-term trend. As
companies perform well fundamentally their stock prices typically move higher.
As companies perform poorly their stock prices typically move lower. Whilst the
fundamental outlook for a company can literally change overnight, the trends
established by a company's fundamental outlook tend to last for a while.
Long-term trends, sometimes called major trends, are those trends that have
dominated a stock or CFD for the longest period. Looking at this weekly chart of
McDonalds (MCD:xnys), you can see that the stock price has been rising in an
upward trend from left to right-notice the series of higher highs and higher
lows as time progressed (see Figure 4).
Figure 4 - Long-Term Trend
When you see a strong upward trend like the one you see on the chart for
McDonalds, you know that traders are eager to buy this stock and you should
consider doing the same if you want to make money from this price movement. If
the trend on the chart for McDonalds had been pointing downward, you would
consider selling the stock or CFD to take advantage of the price movement.
Next you need to look at the intermediate trend to see if it is trending in
the same direction as the long-term trend.
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Intermediate Trend |
Intermediate trends, sometimes called minor trends, move more rapidly than
long-term trends because they cover a shorter period of time. These trends are
also affected by a company's fundamental factors. Looking at this daily chart of
McDonalds you can see that the stock price has not moved straight up as it has
followed its long-term upward trend. It has had periods when the price has moved
sideways. It has also had periods when the price has fallen (see Figure
5).
Figure 5 - Intermediate Trend
Notice that, whilst there have been periods when the intermediate trend was
moving both sideways and downward, the long-term trend was still moving upward.
Trends tend to move in a stepped or zig-zag fashion. Rarely do they move
straight up or straight down.
Seeing this price action should confirm your bias toward buying McDonalds.
However, it should also tell you that whilst your bias is bullish (you think the
stock price is going to move higher) you may want to wait to buy the stock or
CFD until you see the intermediate trend move upward and in line with the
long-term trend.
Next you need to look at the short-term trend to see if it is trending in the
same direction as the long-term trend and the intermediate trend.
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Short-Term Trend |
Short-term trends, sometimes called micro trends, are more volatile than both
long-term trends and intermediate trends because they cover the shortest period
of time and they are predominantly affected by the news of the day. It is not
uncommon to see these short-term trends change direction extremely rapidly.
Looking at this hourly chart of McDonalds you can see that the stock price was
in a short-term downward trend at the beginning of the chart. Notice the series
of lower highs and lower lows as time progressed (see Figure 6).
Figure 6 - Short-Term Trend
Notice too that, whilst the short-term trend was moving downward, the
intermediate trend and the long-term trend were still moving upward. It is
therefore possible to have different trend time-frames moving in different
directions at the same time.
Seeing this downward trend on the hourly chart would probably have deterred
you from making a bullish investment in McDonalds at that time, even though the
intermediate and long-term trends were bullish. However, since it is the only
the short-term trend, you should not abandon your bullish confidence in
McDonalds just yet.
In fact if you look at the end of the hourly chart for McDonalds you can see
the short-term trend changing direction, which may bring all three trends into
alignment.
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Aligning Trend Time-frames |
Your most profitable trading opportunities will come when the long-term,
intermediate and short-term trends all line up in the same direction. Just as it
is easier to swim downstream instead of upstream against the current, it is
easier to trade with a trend than against it. When the long-term, intermediate
and short-term trends are all moving higher it is an excellent time to buy a
stock or CFD. When the long-term, intermediate and short-term trends are all
moving lower it is an excellent time to sell a stock or CFD.
You can see in the chart of McDonalds that the trend for each time-frame has
been moving higher for the past few months, and that the price of McDonalds has
shot up. Had you purchased this stock or CFD, and then held it throughout this
most recent surge, you would have made a large profit (see Figure 7).
Figure 7 - Aligning Various Trend Timeframes
Understanding trends is only half of what basic technical analysis is about.
To get the full picture you also have to understand the concepts of support and
resistance.
Paying Attention to Support and Resistance
Support and resistance levels are like the ends of an Olympic swimming pool.
Just as the ends of the pool tell swimmers when it is time to turn around and
start swimming in the opposite direction, support and resistance levels tell you
if the price of a stock or CFD is likely to stop, to turn around, and to start
moving in the opposite direction in the future. Knowing where a stock or CFD may
stop and turn around helps you to enter and exit your investments at the most
profitable times.
Support is a price level at which a stock or CFD tends to
stop moving down, then turns around and starts climbing.
Support levels illustrate important psychological levels in the stock market.
Support levels usually form because of the following:
- Stock and CFD traders who missed an earlier buying opportunity decide it is
a good time to get into the trade
- Stock and CFD traders who bought the stock or CFD decide it is a good time to
add to their positions.
- Stock and CFD traders who sold the stock or CFD decide it
is a good time to take profits
Resistance is a price level at which a stock or CFD tends
to stop moving up, then turns around and starts falling.
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Extra material |
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Resistance levels illustrate important psychological levels in the market.
Resistance levels form because of the following:
- Stock and CFD traders who missed an earlier selling opportunity decide it is
a good time to get into the trade
- Stock and CFD traders who sold the stock or CFD decide it is a good time to
add to their positions
- Stock and CFD traders who bought the stock or CFD decide it is a good time
to take profits
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Support and resistance levels are not precise. Instead they are general price
ranges. When you are identifying your support and resistance levels, picture
yourself drawing them in with a large marker instead of a fine-tipped pen. For
example you are only going to frustrate yourself if you try to pinpoint a price
level of 1410 on the S&P 500 as support. You will be much better off if you
identify a price range of 1400 to 1420 or 1390 to 1430 as support. Give your
support and resistance levels some room to be flexible.
You will find that support and resistance levels come in many shapes and
sizes. To become a successful stock and CFD investor you will need to learn to
recognise the following:
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Horizontal Support and Resistance |
Horizontal support and resistance levels form as stock prices rise or fall to
the same levels time and time again. You can see these support and resistance
levels take shape on charts of the stocks and CFDs you are interested in trading
as the stock price moves back and forth.
Looking at the Caterpillar (CAT:xnys) chart, for instance, you can see that
certain price levels (indicated by bold black lines) acted as strong levels of
support and resistance. From June 2007 to the early part of August 2007 the
$77.50 price level served as support for the stock price (see Figure 8). This
same price level, once the stock price broke down through it in mid-August,
served as resistance for the stock price throughout the rest of August and into
September.
Figure 8 - Horizontal Support and Resistance
Imagine you had bought the stock or CFD for Caterpillar in early September at
$72.50 as it was bouncing from support and it was now approaching $82.50.
Knowing that this level has been a significant resistance level, you may
consider exiting your Caterpillar investment so that you can realize your
profits before the stock price turns around and begins moving lower.
Once you feel comfortable identifying horizontal levels of support and
resistance, you can move on to diagonal levels of support and resistance.
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Diagonal Support and Resistance |
Diagonal support and resistance levels, you will find, can be a trader's best
friend. Whilst these levels can be more difficult to identify when you are just
getting started, they are invaluable when you are analyzing a stock or CFD that
is on a trend. Remember, you want to identify stock or CFD trends early because
it is much easier to make profitable trades when a stock or CFD is on a trend.
As you look at the charts of the stocks and CFDs you are interested in
trading, you will begin to notice that they will often form higher highs and
higher lows, or lower highs and lower lows, as they increase or decrease in
value. The lines that connect these highs and lows are your diagonal support and
resistance levels.
Looking at the same Caterpillar (CAT:xnys) chart as we were looking at
previously, for instance, you can see that the stock price was creating a series
of lower highs and lower lows towards the end of 2007. If you connect all of the
highs with a diagonal line and all of the lows with another diagonal line
(indicated by bold black lines) you will be able to see the diagonal levels of
support and resistance that were affecting the price of Caterpillar (see
Figure 9). You can also see that the downward trending level running
between the support and resistance levels served as both support and resistance
during that same period of time.
Figure 9 - Diagonal Support and Resistance
If you were watching Caterpillar you would wait until you saw the stock price
rise up to the downward-trending resistance level before you sold the stock or
CFD. Once you had invested you could then watch for Caterpillar to fall down to
the down-trending support level before you exited the investment and took your
profits.
The real trick in effectively investing using support and resistance levels
is to combine both horizontal and diagonal levels in your analysis. Just as
you've seen in these illustrations of Caterpillar's price chart, horizontal
and diagonal support and resistance levels co-exist. Your stock and CFD charts
have a wealth of information locked within them, and they are waiting for you to
unlock that information with simple-but-effective technical analysis techniques.
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